A redução das taxas de juros diminui a inflação?
Como as taxas de juros afetam a inflação? Em geral, o aumento das taxas de juro reduz a inflação, ao mesmo tempo queA queda das taxas de juros tende a acelerar a inflação. Quando as taxas de juro diminuem, os consumidores gastam mais, pois o custo dos bens e serviços é mais barato porque o financiamento é mais barato.
“Reduzir as taxas demasiado cedo ou demasiado pode resultar numa reversão do progresso que temos visto na inflaçãoe, em última análise, exigir uma política ainda mais rigorosa para fazer a inflação voltar a 2%”, disse Powell. “Mas a flexibilização da política demasiado tarde ou muito pouco poderia enfraquecer indevidamente a actividade económica e o emprego.”
Se as taxas de juros forem reduzidas,certos tipos de empréstimo podem se tornar pelo menos um pouco mais acessíveis. As taxas de juros do cartão de crédito podem cair, assim como as taxas de empréstimos para veículos. O mesmo se aplica a hipotecas com taxas ajustáveis e linhas de crédito de home equity.
É responsabilidade do banco central de uma nação prevenir a inflação através depolítica monetária. A política monetária envolve principalmente a alteração das taxas de juros para controlar a inflação. Contudo, os governos, através da política fiscal, podem ajudar no combate à inflação.
Se a taxa de juro (nominal) da poupança for superior à inflação, a taxa de juro real é positiva e o poder de compra da sua poupança aumenta. Se a taxa de juro (nominal) da poupança for inferior à inflação,a taxa de juros real é negativa e o poder de compra das suas poupanças diminui.
Quando o banco central aumenta as taxas de juro, os empréstimos tornam-se mais caros. Neste ambiente, tanto os consumidores como as empresas poderão pensar duas vezes antes de contrair empréstimos para grandes compras ou investimentos. Essedesacelera os gastos, normalmente diminuindo a demanda geral e, esperançosamente, reduzindo a inflação.
O mercado de futuros dos fundos federais espera que o banco central comece a cortar a taxa em Junho e diminua-a três vezes este ano. No mês passado, a Reserva Federal manteve a sua taxa de juro diretora inalterada no máximo dos últimos 23 anos, entre 5,25% e 5,5%, emanteve sua previsão de três cortes nas taxas em 2024.
A redução das taxas torna o empréstimo de dinheiro mais barato. Isto incentiva os gastos e o investimento dos consumidores e das empresas e pode aumentar os preços dos ativos. A redução das taxas, no entanto, também pode levar a problemas comoarmadilhas de inflação e liquidez, o que prejudica a eficácia das taxas baixas.
“Dependendo do vencimento do título,alguém que já possui um título antes da queda das taxasprovavelmente se beneficiará do rendimento mais alto disponível em seus títulos, além de ver os preços de seus títulos subirem se as taxas caírem." Dito isto, a queda das taxas também levará a rendimentos mais baixos em títulos mais novos.
Quais são os impactos das taxas de juros mais baixas? Taxas de juro mais baixas incentivam a contracção de empréstimos e reduzem o custo da dívida com taxa variável. Essa combinação geralmente beneficia os lucros das empresas, o que estimula o interesse dos investidores e eleva os preços das ações.
O que reverte a inflação?
Política monetária: na política monetária, o banco central geralmente aumenta a taxa de juros que reduz o investimento e o crescimento económico. Isso reverte a inflação. 2. Oferta de moeda: a retirada de dinheiro do mercado pelo banco central afeta o consumo e a demanda, o que diminui a inflação.
A Reserva Federal respondeu ao aumento da inflação aumentando as taxas de juro para reduzir a procura de bens, serviços e trabalho. Se as taxas de juro aumentarem o suficiente, a produção e o emprego serão reduzidos, as alterações nos preços e nos salários monetários abrandarão e, eventualmente, a inflação subjacente dos preços será reduzida.
Resumindo: a Reserva Federal aumenta as taxas de juro para desacelerar a economia. Ao tornar mais dispendioso contrair empréstimos e gastar, os aumentos das taxas desencorajam os empréstimos e os gastos. Esta procura reduzida teoricamente abranda a inflação.
A inflação permitemutuáriospagar aos credores com dinheiro que vale menos do que quando foi originalmente emprestado, o que beneficia os mutuários. Quando a inflação provoca preços mais elevados, a procura de crédito aumenta, aumentando as taxas de juro, o que beneficia os credores.
Com margens de lucro que realmente se expandem à medida que as taxas sobem, entidades comobancos, companhias de seguros, corretoras e gestores de dinheirogeralmente beneficiam de taxas de juro mais elevadas.
Famílias de baixa rendamais estressados pela inflação
Estudos anteriores sugerem que a inflação atinge mais duramente as famílias de baixos rendimentos por diversas razões. Gastam a maior parte dos seus rendimentos em necessidades como alimentação, gás e rendas – categorias com taxas de inflação superiores à média – deixando poucas formas de reduzir as despesas .
Sempre que a Reserva Federal aumenta as taxas para combater a inflação elevada, o risco de uma recessão aumenta, e a economia dos EUA tem tipicamente caído numa recessão económica sob o peso do aumento dos custos dos empréstimos. Mas isso ainda não aconteceu desta vez.
A inflação afeta os preços de tudo que nos rodeia. De modo geral, a inflação pode ser causada por vários fatores. O recente aumento da inflação foi impulsionado, pelo menos em parte, porquestões da cadeia de abastecimento, procura reprimida dos consumidores e estímulo económico da pandemia. » Saiba mais: Quando a inflação cairá?
“O aumento das taxas de juro ajuda a reduzir o nível geral de procura e, portanto, esperançosamente, reduz a pressão ascendente sobre os preços”, afirma Gapen. Então, por que isso poderia causar uma recessão? A longo prazo, as empresas poderão responder aos consumidores que compram menos bens e serviços reduzindo a produção, explica Gapen.
Taxas de juros projetadas nos próximos cinco anos
As previsões de taxas de juro do ING indicam taxas para 2024 a partir de 4%, com cortes subsequentes para 3,75% no segundo trimestre. Depois, 3,5% no terceiro e 3,25% no último trimestre de 2024.Em 2025, ING prevê nova queda para 3%.
As taxas de hipoteca cairão?
A previsão da taxa de hipoteca para 2024 é queespera-se que as taxas caiam, com base nas previsões atuais, embora possa demorar mais tempo do que se esperava anteriormente. E pode haver flutuações como vimos em Fevereiro e Março de 2024, quando as taxas hipotecárias fixas aumentaram após muitos meses de queda.
A estimativa mediana para o intervalo alvo da taxa dos fundos federais no final de 2025 passou para3,75% a 4%, de 3,5% para 3,75% em dezembro. Para o final de 2026, o ponto mediano mostra agora uma meta de 3% a 3,25%, contra 2,75% a 3% há três meses.
A taxa de juros real dos EUA está em-1,19%, em comparação com 2,21% no ano passado. Isto é inferior à média de longo prazo de 3,69%.
Com base em dados recentes, a Trading Economics prevê um aumento para 5% em 2023, antes de cair para 4,25% em 2024 e 3,25% em 2025.
Compre títulos de curto prazoem vez de títulos de longo prazo
Num período de subida das taxas de juro, o preço das obrigações existentes diminuirá. As obrigações com um prazo de maturidade mais longo sentirão um impacto maior de um aumento nas taxas de juro do que uma obrigação com uma maturidade mais curta. Isto também se aplica a fundos mútuos de títulos e ETFs de títulos.
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